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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 23

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.80 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model