4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 35

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Carolina Panthers 34

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.55 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model