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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 2

Carolina Panthers 27 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 4-T.McMillan (95-G.Dexter) [0-D.Deablo].

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.45 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 2, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model