Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(13:12) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to ATL 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 73, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model