Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Carolina Panthers 34

(1:05) (Shotgun) 18-J.Strand pass short left to 81-A.Hooper to CAR 47 for 7 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP

What Happened

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.30 EP
57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -1.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model