Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 16-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to CAR 30, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-J.Coker to ATL 34 for 36 yards (16-J.Bailey; 89-C.Woerner). PENALTY on ATL-56-H.Perkins, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.34 EP
50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model