Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 34 – Atlanta Falcons 3

(10:21) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 36 for 7 yards (28-A.Dillon).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.23 EP
55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model