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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Carolina Panthers 34

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to CAR 6, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 18-J.Coker.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model