4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 10-R.Fitzgerald 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.46 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model