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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 1 at the 31
Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 10
What Actually Happened
(:46) 5-D.London left end to CAR 33 for -2 yards (55-D.Lloyd).
The Three Options
GO
+2.49 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.06 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.09 EP
KICK
+1.20 EP
- 81% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
- 19% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT
+0.18 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
