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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 46 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.78 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model