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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(9:45) 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.00 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • 64% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model