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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 74

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 10-T.Way punts 47 yards to DAL 27, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 36 for 9 yards (51-A.Kaho).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.90 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP