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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 69

Denver Broncos 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 41 yards to JAX 28, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.08 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model