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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 27

Houston Texans 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. PENALTY on HOU-66-K.Rutledge, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.89 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model