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Cincinnati Bengals

2-0 HC Zac Taylor
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

0-2 HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2026-09-20 · 13:00 ET Reliant Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CIN
39.0%
HOU
61.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CIN offense: +0.007 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.119 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21 14–28
–
HOU 22 15–29
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

CIN

B.J. Hill DT Questionable Achilles
Joe Burrow QB Questionable Back

HOU

Jadeveon Clowney DE Out Knee
Nico Collins WR Out Hamstring
Jacob Hummel LB Out Groin
Ed Ingram G Out Groin

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 20
–
HOU 6

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 03:37 TD CIN (3:37) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 01:20 FG HOU (1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. CIN 7 – HOU 3
  • Q3 12:32 FG CIN (12:32) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 10 – HOU 3
  • Q3 03:12 TD CIN (3:12) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – HOU 3
  • Q3 00:39 FG HOU (:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. PENALTY on HOU-66-K.Rutledge, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CIN 17 – HOU 6
  • Q4 12:21 FG CIN (12:21) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 20 – HOU 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 31%

    (14:04) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-W.Wagner. 13-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 13 for 5 yards (42-O.Burks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 8 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:19) 38-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to CIN 46, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 81-D.Meyers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 17 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 35%

    (10:15) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:47) 38-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to CIN 40, impetus ends at CIN 48, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 40 for no gain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 50%

    (4:47) 8-R.Rehkow punts 37 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 95%

    (13:28) (Field Goal formation) 38-K.Kroeger to CIN 24 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 25. 38-K.Kroeger pass incomplete short right.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 94%

    (6:58) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to CIN 19 for -1 yards (97-D.Lawrence).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 HOU 4th & 13 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:31) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-W.Wagner. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 10 yards (38-D.Ivey; 43-J.Giles-Harris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:40) 38-K.Kroeger punts 35 yards to CIN 29, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-D.Meyers pushed ob at CIN 44 for 15 yards (87-F.Moreau). PENALTY on HOU-87-F.Moreau, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 44.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 78%

    (12:32) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 63%

    (7:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 HOU 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 86%

    (:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger. PENALTY on HOU-66-K.Rutledge, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 65%

    (12:21) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:02) 8-R.Rehkow punts 36 yards to HOU 41, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:30) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to CIN 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 81-D.Meyers. PENALTY on HOU-56-J.Hill, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 15.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:17) 8-R.Rehkow punts 59 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-W.Wagner. 13-J.Noel to HOU 31 for 17 yards (29-K.Dugger; 37-P.Jules). PENALTY on HOU-17-J.Wayne, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 31.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 17-J.Wayne (27-J.Battle).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CIN 4th & 8 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 65%

    (2:16) 8-R.Rehkow punts 27 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 HOU 4th & 17 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at CIN 38 for -19 yards (52-C.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →