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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 39

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 2-E.McPherson 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -2.06 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model