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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 2-E.McPherson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.88 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP