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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 39

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 8-R.Rehkow punts 27 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.48 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.08 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.94 EP