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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 16

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:28) (Field Goal formation) 38-K.Kroeger to CIN 24 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at CIN 25. 38-K.Kroeger pass incomplete short right.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.18 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model