Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Houston Texans 3

(:31) 8-R.Rehkow punts 58 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-W.Wagner. 13-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 10 yards (38-D.Ivey; 43-J.Giles-Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.07 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 72, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model