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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 85

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 38-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to CIN 46, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 81-D.Meyers.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.44 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 85, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 43, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model