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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 8-R.Rehkow punts 37 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.48 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model