Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Houston Texans 6

(10:02) 8-R.Rehkow punts 36 yards to HOU 41, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.20 EP
53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model