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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 59

Houston Texans 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete short middle to 17-J.Wayne (27-J.Battle).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.43 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model