Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 64

Houston Texans 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(14:40) 38-K.Kroeger punts 35 yards to CIN 29, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-D.Meyers pushed ob at CIN 44 for 15 yards (87-F.Moreau). PENALTY on HOU-87-F.Moreau, Lowering the Head to Make Forcible Contact, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 44.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.78 EP
65% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model