Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 73

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 8-R.Rehkow punts 59 yards to HOU 14, Center-46-W.Wagner. 13-J.Noel to HOU 31 for 17 yards (29-K.Dugger; 37-P.Jules). PENALTY on HOU-17-J.Wayne, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.72 EP
72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model