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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 60

Houston Texans 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 38-K.Kroeger punts 45 yards to CIN 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman, fair catch by 81-D.Meyers. PENALTY on HOU-56-J.Hill, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.52 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model