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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 18

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to CIN 19 for -1 yards (97-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.91 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model