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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 40

Houston Texans 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 58 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP