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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 19

Houston Texans 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked at CIN 38 for -19 yards (52-C.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.12 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.53 EP