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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 53

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 8-R.Rehkow punts 45 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-W.Wagner. 13-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 13 for 5 yards (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.61 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 53, worth -3.44 EP
KICK -2.00 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.95 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.31 EP
PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP