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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 19

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.51 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 29, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model