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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 87

Houston Texans 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 38-K.Kroeger punts 47 yards to CIN 40, impetus ends at CIN 48, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 40 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.01 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 87, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model