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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 8-R.Rehkow punts 43 yards to HOU 8, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 13-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model