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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 25

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 17-D.Jones up the middle to KC 22 for 3 yards (56-G.Karlaftis; 95-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model