4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 1

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 66-M.Caliendo and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 11-J.Royals for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 1, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model