Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 70

Miami Dolphins 6 – San Francisco 49ers 35

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to SF 22, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-J.Cowing to MIA 42 for 36 yards (48-B.Pinion). PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.56 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.77 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model