4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 29

Washington Commanders 10 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 19-D.Stevens 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.51 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.04 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model