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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 31

Baltimore Ravens 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Granderson), Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.89 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model