Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- NO offense: -0.011 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- NO defense: -0.173 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.033 EPA/dropback in prior starts
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 2
NO
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 02:57 TD BAL (2:57) (Shotgun) 76-C.Vinson reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – BAL 6
- Q2 03:49 FG NO (3:49) 10-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright. NO 3 – BAL 7
- Q2 00:28 TD BAL (:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 7-R.Bateman for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 3 – BAL 13
- Q2 00:02 FG NO (:02) 10-D.Carlson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright. NO 6 – BAL 14
- Q3 11:05 FG NO (11:05) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright. NO 9 – BAL 14
- Q3 03:28 FG BAL (3:28) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. NO 9 – BAL 17
- Q4 09:47 TD NO (9:47) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 15 – BAL 17
- Q4 01:32 TD NO (1:32) 6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 23 – BAL 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(13:32) 30-R.Eckley punts 47 yards to NO 24, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NO 4th & 9 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(9:55) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by NO-38-J.Price.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 47%
(13:38) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by NO-42-M.Reid.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 BAL 4th & 13 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 77%
(10:15) 33-T.Loop 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-C.Granderson), Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%
(3:49) 10-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NO 4th & 4 at the 33Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 73%
(11:05) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EPp(convert) 71%
(8:14) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to NO 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-B.Brown pushed ob at NO 32 for 9 yards (49-J.Higgins).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 44%
(5:41) (No Huddle) 6-T.Shough up the middle to BAL 43 for 1 yard (14-K.Hamilton).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(1:32) 6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
See the full breakdown →
