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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 17 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 30-R.Eckley punts 40 yards to NO 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 19-B.Brown pushed ob at NO 32 for 9 yards (49-J.Higgins).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.76 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP