4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 44

New Orleans Saints 17 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(5:41) (No Huddle) 6-T.Shough up the middle to BAL 43 for 1 yard (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.86 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model