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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 30-R.Eckley punts 47 yards to NO 24, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.29 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model