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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 17 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 6-T.Shough up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.45 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 1, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model