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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 17-R.Wright punts 37 yards to BAL 6, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by NO-42-M.Reid.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP