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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 33

New Orleans Saints 6 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 10-D.Carlson 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.06 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 73% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP