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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 64

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to BAL 24, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by NO-38-J.Price.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.97 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model