4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 5

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(3:49) 10-D.Carlson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.06 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP