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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 33

Washington Commanders 13 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 19-D.Stevens 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.71 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model